Utility of epidemiologic simulation models in the planning of trypanosomiasis control programs.

To understand the behavior of complex epidemiologic systems, it is useful to devise computer based simulation models by approximating the interactions via biomathematical expressions. Without doubt, these models could be over simplifications of complex interactions but they could be useful in comparison to classical laboratory and/or field experimental approaches which may not be practical or feasible. In the past obtaining solutions to biomathematical equations with any degree of complexity has been impossible. However, the availability of powerful computers has now made the quantitative analysis of such systems feasible and indeed practical. With this in mind, research to develop computer simulation models involving Trypanosoma has been underway at Tuskegee University. Based on static and dynamic computer models, several alternatives for the control of trypanosomiasis have been examined. The integration of multivariate, systems analysis and optimization models in epidemiologic problem solving and decision making pertaining to the trypanosome-tsetse complex has been valuable. Its potential application to other epidemiologic problems is an asset that should be exploited in future analytical studies.