[Research of prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, 1984-2015].

Objective: To analyze the prevalence of schistosomiasis in Hunan province, and provide scientific evidence for the control and elimination of schistosomiasis. Methods: The changes of infection rates of Schistosoma (S.) japonicum among residents and cattle in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 were analyzed by using dynamic trend diagram; and the time regression model was used to fit the infection rates of S. japonicum, and predict the recent infection rate. Results: The overall infection rates of S. japonicum in Hunan from 1984 to 2015 showed downward trend (95.29% in residents and 95.16% in cattle). By using the linear regression model, the actual values of infection rates in residents and cattle were all in the 95% confidence intervals of the value predicted; and the prediction showed that the infection rates in the residents and cattle would continue to decrease from 2016 to 2020. Conclusion: The prevalence of schistosomiasis was in decline in Hunan. The regression model has a good effect in the short-term prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence.