JACC. Asia · 2023
The ABC-Death Score for Mortality Prediction in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Catheter Ablation.
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Wang Yu-Feng, Jiang Chao, He Liu, Du Xin, Guo Xue-Yuan, Tang Ri-Bo, Sang Cai-Hua, Long De-Yong, Dong Jian-Zeng, Lip Gregory Y H, Ma Chang-Sheng
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Data on the performance of risk scores in predicting mortality risk after atrial fibrillation (AF) ablations are limited.
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of mortality with preablation biomarkers and evaluate the performance of age, biomarker, and clinical history (ABC)-death score in patients with AF undergoing catheter ablation.
METHODS: Patients with AF undergoing catheter ablations between 2013 and 2019 in the Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry were enrolled. Biomarkers associated with ABC-death score were quantified from baseline blood samples collected before AF ablation. Clinical outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiac mortality. Discrimination, reclassification, clinical use, and calibration were further evaluated.
RESULTS: We identified 4,218 patients with AF undergoing catheter ablations. During a median follow-up period of 4.0 years, 119 patients died due to all causes, with 49 dying due to cardiac causes. Biomarker levels were all independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause death and cardiac death. The ABC-death score was superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting all-cause death (C index 0.73 vs 0.63; P = 0.001) and cardiac death (C index 0.83 vs 0.71; P = 0.007). Reclassification analysis revealed significant reclassification improvements of the ABC-death score compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled]-vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years and sex category [female]) score. Decision curve analysis showed the greater net benefit of use of the ABC-death score. Calibration plots presented an overestimation of the observed mortality event rate by ABC-death score.
CONCLUSIONS: Preablation biomarkers associated with ABC-death score were independently related to increased all-cause and cardiac mortality risk. Despite the overestimation of the event rate, the ABC-death score outperformed the CHA2DS2-VASc score in discriminating and reclassifying mortality risk, especially for cardiac mortality.
OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations of mortality with preablation biomarkers and evaluate the performance of age, biomarker, and clinical history (ABC)-death score in patients with AF undergoing catheter ablation.
METHODS: Patients with AF undergoing catheter ablations between 2013 and 2019 in the Chinese Atrial Fibrillation Registry were enrolled. Biomarkers associated with ABC-death score were quantified from baseline blood samples collected before AF ablation. Clinical outcomes were all-cause mortality and cardiac mortality. Discrimination, reclassification, clinical use, and calibration were further evaluated.
RESULTS: We identified 4,218 patients with AF undergoing catheter ablations. During a median follow-up period of 4.0 years, 119 patients died due to all causes, with 49 dying due to cardiac causes. Biomarker levels were all independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause death and cardiac death. The ABC-death score was superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc score in predicting all-cause death (C index 0.73 vs 0.63; P = 0.001) and cardiac death (C index 0.83 vs 0.71; P = 0.007). Reclassification analysis revealed significant reclassification improvements of the ABC-death score compared with the CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure or dysfunction, hypertension, age ≥75 [doubled], diabetes mellitus, stroke [doubled]-vascular disease, age 65 to 74 years and sex category [female]) score. Decision curve analysis showed the greater net benefit of use of the ABC-death score. Calibration plots presented an overestimation of the observed mortality event rate by ABC-death score.
CONCLUSIONS: Preablation biomarkers associated with ABC-death score were independently related to increased all-cause and cardiac mortality risk. Despite the overestimation of the event rate, the ABC-death score outperformed the CHA2DS2-VASc score in discriminating and reclassifying mortality risk, especially for cardiac mortality.