Comparing three neural networks to predict depression treatment outcomes in psychological therapies.

OBJECTIVE

Artificial neural networks have been used in various fields to solve classification and prediction tasks. However, it is unclear if these may be adequate methods to predict psychological treatment outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of neural networks using psychological treatment outcomes data.

METHOD: Three neural network models (TensorFlow, nnet, and monmlp) and a generalised linear regression model were compared in their ability to predict post-treatment remission of depression symptoms in a large naturalistic sample (n = 69,489) of patients accessing low intensity cognitive behavioural therapy. Prognostic accuracy was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) in an external cross-validation design.

RESULTS

The AUC of the neural networks in an external test sample ranged from 0.64 to 0.65 and the AUC of the linear regression model was 0.63.

CONCLUSION

Neural networks can help predict symptom remission in new samples with moderate accuracy, although these models were no more accurate than a simpler inferential statistical linear regression model.