The surgeon : journal of the Royal Colleges of Surgeons of Edinburgh and Ireland · 2024
Risk stratification of best medical therapy for acute uncomplicated type B intramural hematoma.
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Yang Kelvin Jeason, Kuo Huey-Shiuan, Chi Nai-Hsin, Yu Hsi-Yu, Wang Shoei-Shen, Wu I-Hui
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: Best medical therapy (BMT) for acute uncomplicated type B intramural hematoma (TBIMH) is the current treatment guideline, but there is considerable controversy about subsequent clinical course and outcome, which may be associated with a significant failure rate. The purpose of this study was to identify potential risk factors for BMT failure and to develop a risk score to guide clinical decision making.
METHODS: Patients with acute uncomplicated TBIMH between 2011 January and 2020 December were retrospectively studied. Logistic regression was applied to univariately assess potential risk predictors, and multivariable model results were then used to formulate a simplified predictive model for BMT failure.
RESULTS: In a total of 61 patients, the overall rate of BMT failure was 57.4% (35/61), of which 48.6% (17/35) occurred within 28 days of onset. Logistic regression identified maximum descending aortic diameter (HR = 1.99 CI = 1.16-3.40, p = 0.012), initial IMH thickness (HR = 3.29, CI = 1.28-8.46, p = 0.013) and presence of focal contrast enhancement (HR = 3.12, CI = 1.49-6.54, p = 0.003) as potential risk predictors of BMT failure. A risk score was calculated as follows: [Max DTA diameter (mm)∗0.6876 + Max IMH thickness (mm)∗1.1918 + PAU/ULP ∗1.1369]. Freedom from BMT failure at 1 year was 72% in patients with a risk score < 4.12, compared with only 35.1% in those with a risk score ≧ 4.12.
CONCLUSIONS: In a substantial proportion of patients with acute uncomplicated TBIMH, initial BMT failed. Based on the three initial computed tomographic imaging variables, this risk score could help stratify patients at high or low risk for BMT failure and provided additional information for early intervention.
METHODS: Patients with acute uncomplicated TBIMH between 2011 January and 2020 December were retrospectively studied. Logistic regression was applied to univariately assess potential risk predictors, and multivariable model results were then used to formulate a simplified predictive model for BMT failure.
RESULTS: In a total of 61 patients, the overall rate of BMT failure was 57.4% (35/61), of which 48.6% (17/35) occurred within 28 days of onset. Logistic regression identified maximum descending aortic diameter (HR = 1.99 CI = 1.16-3.40, p = 0.012), initial IMH thickness (HR = 3.29, CI = 1.28-8.46, p = 0.013) and presence of focal contrast enhancement (HR = 3.12, CI = 1.49-6.54, p = 0.003) as potential risk predictors of BMT failure. A risk score was calculated as follows: [Max DTA diameter (mm)∗0.6876 + Max IMH thickness (mm)∗1.1918 + PAU/ULP ∗1.1369]. Freedom from BMT failure at 1 year was 72% in patients with a risk score < 4.12, compared with only 35.1% in those with a risk score ≧ 4.12.
CONCLUSIONS: In a substantial proportion of patients with acute uncomplicated TBIMH, initial BMT failed. Based on the three initial computed tomographic imaging variables, this risk score could help stratify patients at high or low risk for BMT failure and provided additional information for early intervention.