Clinical and Imaging Predictors of Pancreatic Cancer in Patients Hospitalized for Acute Pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Identifying factors associated with increased short-term risk of pancreatic cancer in the setting of acute pancreatitis (AP) can inform clinical care decisions and expedite cancer diagnosis.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of patients hospitalized for AP between 2007 and 2017 in an integrated health-care system in Southern California. AP cases were identified by diagnosis code with laboratory confirmation. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess risk of pancreatic cancer within 3 years of AP, adjusting for patient demographics, clinical parameters (body mass index, AP etiology, chronic pancreatitis, diabetes) and radiographic imaging features.

RESULTS

Among 9,490 patients hospitalized with AP, the mean (standard deviation) age was 55.8 (17.8) years, 55% were women, and 42% were Hispanic. Majority of AP cases were biliary (64%), 12% were alcohol-related, 5% were hypertriglyceridemia-induced, and 19% were other/unknown etiology. Ninety-five (1%) patients were diagnosed with pancreatic cancer within 3 years of AP (4.2 cases/1000 person-years). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer were age ≥65 years (hazard risk [HR]: 2.5, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.2-5.3), male sex (HR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.2-2.8), Asian/Pacific Islander race (HR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.1-3.6), and underweight body mass index (HR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.1-6.5). In addition, other/unknown AP etiology (HR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.3-3.1) and dilatation of the main pancreatic duct (HR: 6.6, 95% CI: 4.2-10.5) were independently associated with increased risk of pancreatic cancer.

CONCLUSION

In addition to older age, the lack of well-established etiology, underweight body habitus, and main pancreatic duct dilatation were independently associated with increased short-term risk of pancreatic cancer among patients hospitalized for AP.