Zhongguo xue xi chong bing fang zhi za zhi = Chinese journal of schistosomiasis control · 2016
[Endemic situation trend of schistosomiasis in Guichi District of Chizhou City, Anhui Province, 1991-2011].
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Cong-Cong Xia, Zong-Gui He, Geng-Xin Chen, Tie-Jun Zhang, Sui-Heng Lin, Yi Hu, Zhi-Jie Zhang
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: To understand the epidemical patterns of schistosomiasis in Guichi District of Chizhou City, Anhui Province, in order to provide the reference for schistosomiasis control.
METHODS: The annual data of schistosomiasis endemic situation in Guichi District from 1991 to 2011 were collected. The descriptive analysis was first conducted to describe the changes of schistosomiasis in local residents and the status of Oncomelania hupensis. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit and predict the tendency of schistosomiasis incidence in this region.
RESULTS: The human morbidity increased with the increasing of the areas with snail habitats (P < 0.05), and four peaks (in 1992, 1995, 2005, 2008) were detected. The difference of the area with snails among different types of snail habitats was statistically significant (F = 256.79, P < 0.05). ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was determined to be the optimal model for analyzing the morbidity of schistosomiasis, and the short-term forecast of the morbidity in Guichi District from 2012 to 2015 showed that the predicted values were 0.017%, 0.007%, 0.012%, and 0.010%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Guichi District is controlled relatively well in the past two decades. However, the surveillance in the lake and marshland regions should be strengthened continuously to prevent the rebounding of the schistosomiasis endemic situation.
METHODS: The annual data of schistosomiasis endemic situation in Guichi District from 1991 to 2011 were collected. The descriptive analysis was first conducted to describe the changes of schistosomiasis in local residents and the status of Oncomelania hupensis. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit and predict the tendency of schistosomiasis incidence in this region.
RESULTS: The human morbidity increased with the increasing of the areas with snail habitats (P < 0.05), and four peaks (in 1992, 1995, 2005, 2008) were detected. The difference of the area with snails among different types of snail habitats was statistically significant (F = 256.79, P < 0.05). ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was determined to be the optimal model for analyzing the morbidity of schistosomiasis, and the short-term forecast of the morbidity in Guichi District from 2012 to 2015 showed that the predicted values were 0.017%, 0.007%, 0.012%, and 0.010%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: The endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Guichi District is controlled relatively well in the past two decades. However, the surveillance in the lake and marshland regions should be strengthened continuously to prevent the rebounding of the schistosomiasis endemic situation.