ESC heart failure · 2024
Global trends in heart failure from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis from the Global Burden of Disease study.
СтатьяМногоцентровое исследованиеПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Liu Zeye, Li Ziping, Li Xinqing, Yan Yiming, Liu Jinyang, Wang Jing, Guan Jingyuan, Xin Anran, Zhang Fengwen, Ouyang Wenbin, Wang Shouzheng, Xia Ruibing, Li Yakun, Shi Yi, Xie Jing, Zhang Yuhui, Pan Xiangbin
Аннотация
AIMS: This study aimed to analyse the global prevalence and disability trends of heart failure (HF) from 1990 to 2019, considering both sexes and country-specific economic strata.
METHODS: This study conducted a secondary analysis employing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The analysis is stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. Through age-period-cohort and Joinpoint regression analyses, we investigated the temporal trends in HF prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) during this period.
RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the global prevalence of HF surged by 106.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 99.3% to 114.3%), reaching 56.2 million cases in 2019. While all-age prevalence and YLDs increased over the 30 year span, age-standardized rates decreased by 2019. Countries with higher SDI experienced a more pronounced percentage decrease compared with those with lower SDI. Longitudinal analysis revealed an overall improvement in both prevalence and YLDs for HF, albeit with notable disparities between SDI quintiles and sexes. Ischaemic heart disease and hypertensive heart disease emerged as the most rapidly increasing and primarily contributing causes of HF, albeit with variations observed across different countries. The average annual percentage change for prevalence and YLDs over the period was -0.26% and -0.25%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the global burden of HF, considering factors such as population aging, regional disparities, sex differences and aetiological variations. The findings hold significant implications for healthcare planning and resource allocation. Continued assessment of these trends and innovative strategies for HF prevention and management are crucial for addressing this pressing global health concern.
METHODS: This study conducted a secondary analysis employing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The analysis is stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) levels. Through age-period-cohort and Joinpoint regression analyses, we investigated the temporal trends in HF prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) during this period.
RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the global prevalence of HF surged by 106.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 99.3% to 114.3%), reaching 56.2 million cases in 2019. While all-age prevalence and YLDs increased over the 30 year span, age-standardized rates decreased by 2019. Countries with higher SDI experienced a more pronounced percentage decrease compared with those with lower SDI. Longitudinal analysis revealed an overall improvement in both prevalence and YLDs for HF, albeit with notable disparities between SDI quintiles and sexes. Ischaemic heart disease and hypertensive heart disease emerged as the most rapidly increasing and primarily contributing causes of HF, albeit with variations observed across different countries. The average annual percentage change for prevalence and YLDs over the period was -0.26% and -0.25%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: This study offers valuable insights into the global burden of HF, considering factors such as population aging, regional disparities, sex differences and aetiological variations. The findings hold significant implications for healthcare planning and resource allocation. Continued assessment of these trends and innovative strategies for HF prevention and management are crucial for addressing this pressing global health concern.