[Prediction of Severe Course in Infants with RSV Bronchiolitis under 6 Months. Spain].

OBJECTIVE

The need for mechanical ventilation (MV) in acute bronchiolitis (AB) by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) varies depending on the series (6-18%). Our goal is to determine the admissions to PICU for MV in patients under 6 months with AB and define the risk factors for building a prediction model.

METHODS

Retrospective study of patients younger than 6 months admitted by BA-VRS between the periods April 1, 2010 and March 31, 2015 was made. The primary variable was the admission to PICU for MV. Related addition, to find risk factors in a model of binary logistic regression clinical variables were collected. A ROC curve model was developed and optimal cutoff point was identified.

RESULTS

In 695 cases, the need of MV in the PICU (Y) was 56 (8.1%). Risk factors (Xi) included in the equation were: 1. male sex (OR 4.27) 2. postmenstrual age (OR: 0.76) 3. Weight income less than p3 (OR: 5.53) 4. intake lees than 50% (OR: 12.4) 5. Severity by scale (OR: 1.58) 6. apneas before admission (OR: 25.5) 7. bacterial superinfection (OR 5.03) and 8. gestational age more than 37 weeks OR (0.32). The area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity were 0.943, 0.84 and 0.93 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The PICU admission for MV was 8.1 in every 100 healthy infants hospitalized for AB and year. The prediction model equation can help to predict patients at increased risk of severe evolution.