Cost-effective analysis of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt versus surgical portacaval shunt for variceal bleeding in early cirrhosis.

Upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage carries significant morbidity and mortality in patients with portal hypertension and cirrhosis. The optimal prevention strategy for rebleeding in these patients remains controversial with respect to the safety and efficacy of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) versus a portocaval surgical shunt (PC). We sought to determine the long-term cost-effectiveness of these two treatments. A Markov state transition decision analysis was created and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis performed to follow patients with early cirrhosis who have an upper gastrointestinal bleed despite medical therapy into either TIPS or PC. Patients were followed throughout the transition states until either death or survival. Probabilities of gastrointestinal rebleed, hepatic encephalopathy, surgical and TIPS-related complications as well as death were obtained from an extensive literature review. Costs were derived from average Medicare reimbursements. The main outcome was dollars per life-year saved. For patients with mild to moderate cirrhosis with upper gastrointestinal variceal bleed, the average cost per life year saved was $17,771 (SD = 471) and $21,438 (SD = 308) for TIPS and PC, respectively. The average life expectancy was 5.0 years and 7.0 years for TIPS and PC, respectively. This yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness rate for portocaval shunt of $3,299 per life year saved. Compared with TIPS, surgical PC shunt resulted in improved survival with minimal increase in cost. Therefore, given the low incremental cost of PC, it should be adopted as a cost-effective strategy in managing this patient population.