Diagnostic performance of Baveno IV criteria in cirrhotic patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: analysis of the F7 liver-1288 study population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The definition of failure to control bleeding agreed upon at the Baveno IV consensus meeting, included the Adjusted Blood Requirement Index [ABRI: number of blood units/(final-initial hematocrit+0.01)]. ABRI ≥0.75 denotes failure. However, timing for hematocrit measurements was not defined. The aims of this study were: (1) to assess the Baveno IV criteria performance to classify treatment success or failure to control bleeding at 5 days, (2) to determine the appropriate timing for hematocrit.

METHODS: Two hundred and forty-two cirrhotic patients with gastrointestinal bleeding were independently classified by three clinical experts according to the Baveno IV criteria, by analysis of the database of a randomized trial. ABRI was calculated by using the closest hematocrit to the 5 day time point from the first trial product administration (ABRI-1) or after the latest transfusion within the 5-day period (ABRI-2). The gold standard for success/failure for 5-day control of bleeding was the clinical judgment of the three independent observers based on all the clinical and follow-up data.

RESULTS: Inter-observer agreement for the final outcome assessment was 0.82 and a final consensus was obtained in 236/242 patients. Inter-observer agreement on patient classification with Baveno IV criteria was 0.70 with ABRI-1 and 0.84 with ABRI-2. c-statistics for correct patients classification were 0.86 for ABRI-1, 0.84 for ABRI-2, and 0.88 for Baveno IV criteria without ABRI. ABRI-1 caused misclassification of 27 patients and ABRI-2 of 39.

CONCLUSIONS: Baveno IV criteria are accurate to assess outcome of patients with variceal bleeding. There is a substantial observer variability linked to timing of hematocrits for ABRI calculation. With the current definition ABRI does not add to the performance of the other criteria.