[Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].

OBJECTIVE

To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA).

METHODS

SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation.

RESULTS

The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0)12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable.

CONCLUSIONS

The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.