[A nomogram to predict non-sentinel lymph node metastasis for breast cancer patients with positive axillary sentinel lymph node].

Objective: To identify the risk factors of non-sentinel lymph node (nSLN) metastasis in breast cancer patients with 1~2 positive axillary sentinel lymph node (SLN) and construct an accurate prediction model. Methods: Retrospective chart review was performed in 917 breast cancer patients who underwent surgery treatment between 2002 and 2017 and pathologically confirmed 1-2 positive SLNs. According to the date of surgery, patients were divided into training group (497 cases) and validation group (420 cases). A nomogram was built to predict nSLN metastasis and the accuracy of the model was validated. Results: Among the 917 patients, 251 (27.4%) had nSLN metastasis. Univariate analysis showed tumor grade, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), extra-capsular extension (ECE), the number of positive and negative SLN and macro-metastasis of SLN were associated with nSLN metastasis (all P<0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed the numbers of positive SLN, negative SLN and macro-metastasis of SLN were independent predictors of nSLN metastasis (all P<0.05). A nomogram was constructed based on the 6 factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.718 for the training group and 0.742 for the validation group. Conclusion: We have developed a nomogram that uses 6 risk factors commonly available to accurately estimate the likelihood of nSLN metastasis for individual patient, which might be helpful for radiation oncologists to make a decision on regional nodal irradiation.