[Prediction of epidemic tendency of schistosomiasis with time-series model in Hubei Province].

OBJECTIVE

To study the endemic trend of schistosomiasis japonica in Hubei Province, so as to provide the theoretical basis for surveillance and forecasting of schistosomiasis.

METHODS

The time-series auto regression integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to fit the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province from 1987 to 2013, and to predict the short-term trend of infection rate.

RESULTS

The actual values of infection rate of residents were all in the 95% confidence internals of value predicted by the ARIMA model. The prediction showed that the infection rate of residents of Hubei Province would continue to decrease slowly.

CONCLUSION

The time-series ARIMA model has good prediction accuracy, and could be used for the short-term forecasting of schistosomiasis.