Explainable Boosting Machine Predicting Length of Stay After Liver Surgery in Patients with Colorectal Liver Metastases.

Background

Accurate preoperative prediction of length of hospital stay (LOS) after surgery for colorectal liver metastases (CRLMs) could improve patient counselling and resource planning, yet reliable risk tools are lacking. We aimed to develop an interpretable machine learning model predicting LOS following first-time liver-directed surgery for CRLMs.

Methods

In this multicenter cohort study, we included patients who underwent first-time liver resection, ablation, or a combination for CRLMs at three Danish hepatobiliary centers between 2016 and 2023. Preoperative features from two national registries were used to train Elastic Net, Random Forest, HistGradientBoosting, and Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) algorithms. Hyperparameters were optimized using five-fold cross-validation. Performance was evaluated on a 20% hold-out test sample using mean absolute error (MAE) with bootstrapped 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Among 915 patients, median LOS was 4.0 days (interquartile range (IQR) 3.0-6.0). All four algorithms achieved comparable prediction error (MAE 3.0-3.1 days). The EBM (MAE 3.1 days, 95% CI 2.6-4.3) algorithm was selected for its inherent interpretability. Surgical approach was the strongest predictor, where percutaneous and laparoscopic approaches were associated with reductions of 1.9 and 1.2 days, respectively. Tumor burden, including number of lesions and largest lesion diameter, showed progressive non-linear associations with longer stays. Nonetheless, overall explained variance was low (R2 ≤ 0.10), and calibration showed systematic underestimation of stays beyond five days.

Conclusions

An inherently interpretable machine learning model matched the predictive performance of opaque algorithms for LOS after CRLM surgery, although overall predictive accuracy was modest and longer stays were underestimated. Explainability analysis identified surgical approach and tumor burden as the most influential predictors. External validation in healthcare systems with different discharge practices is warranted.