Early Prediction of Diabetic Macular Edema via Machine Learning Survival Analysis on Checkup Data.

PURPOSE: To predict the risk of diabetic macular edema (DME) onset and to identify features of the risk subgroups.

DESIGN

Population-based observational study with a case-control design.

SUBJECTS AND CONTROLS: Health checkup and diagnosis data from the JMDC claims database (January 2005-July 2020), one of the largest Japanese epidemiological databases, were used. From 272 337 individuals diagnosed with type 2 diabetes (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision E11), we analyzed 2368 pairs of DME and non-DME individuals, which matched 1:1 by the balancing score calculated from regression analysis of DME with sex, age, months of observation, number of checkups, duration of diabetes, and months until the first checkup.

METHODS

We employed a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, regularized Cox models, and a random survival forest (RSF). These models were trained via ID-level bootstrap resampling using 43 health checkup variables (missing ratio <50%) and 404 high-incidence diseases within 6 months, along with age, sex, and duration of diabetes mellitus, to assess DME risk. Temporal changes in RSF-predicted risk scores were analyzed using nonlinear modeling techniques.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Concordance index (C-index), integrated Brier score (IBS), and cumulative/dynamic mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Thirteen checkup items and 44 disease history variables were significantly associated with the onset of DME. The RSF identified 43.8% of DME cases >5 years prior to onset, with a specificity of 85.5%. The RSF achieved median C-index, IBS, and mean AUC values of 0.694 (95% confidence interval, 0.688-0.697), 0.181 (0.179-0.184), and 0.750 (0.739-0.756), respectively, outperforming both multivariate and univariate Cox models. Three distinct DME risk subgroups were suggested by temporal changes in the RSF-predicted risk score. Predictors of DME onset varied markedly among these subgroups. In the explicit high-risk subgroup, urinary protein and urinary sugar were highly important, and liver function-related blood tests, such as alanine transaminase and γ-gultamyltransferase, were also ranked high in variable importance metrics. Anemia-related laboratory tests were associated with DME development only in this subgroup.

CONCLUSIONS

Random survival forest demonstrated superior performance in relative risk prediction of DME using health checkup data. External validation remains an essential prerequisite before any clinical application.

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURES: Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.