Computational analysis of stochastic delay dynamics in maize streak virus.

OBJECTIVES

The primary goal of this research is to analyze the transmission dynamics of Maize Streak Virus (MSV) by means of a computational and stochastic modeling technique where the time delay and uncertainty factors in the epidemic process are vital considerations.

METHODOLOGY: A compartmental MSV deterministic model was established, which later got an extension to a stochastic delay differential system having five biological compartments consisting of susceptible, insecticide-treated, exposed, infected, and recovered plants. Analytical methods were employed to find the maize streak-free and endemic equilibriums and to derive the treatment reproduction number. The stability of the deterministic and stochastic systems was studied. The numerical methods used for comparison were Euler-Maruyama, stochastic Runge-Kutta, and the stochastic Nonstandard Finite Difference (NSFD) scheme, which were assessed for accuracy, stability, and computational efficiency.

KEY

RESULTS

Theoretical results show that under some parameter values, both equilibrium points are stable in an asymptotic sense. The numerical experiments reveal that the stochastic NSFD scheme is more stable, preserves positivity better, and is independent of step size than the classical methods. Including the stochasticity captures the uncertainty associated with MSV transmission in the real world, thereby enhancing the predictive simulation's validity.

CONCLUSIONS

The suggested stochastic NSFD model is indeed a strong computationally efficient and biologically realistic method to simulate MSV and other plant virus epidemics. The results boost our understanding and management of the agricultural disease control strategies.