[Analysis of visceral leishmaniasis reports by the capture-recapture method].

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the number of cases, deaths, incidence and fatality rate due to visceral leishmaniasis, and to estimate its underreporting, as well as the coverage of the national information systems.

METHODS

Confirmed cases of visceral leishmaniasis were analyzed, based on the following systems: the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN - Information System on Disease Notification), the Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM - Mortality Information System) and the Sistema de Informações Hospitalares (SIH - Hospital Information System), between 2002 and 2003. The variables utilized in relationship for pair identification were: patient's name, mother's name, date of birth, gender, city of residence, and mailing address. The capture-recapture method was applied to calculate the estimates, by means of the Chapman formula.

RESULTS

The estimated underreporting of visceral leishmaniasis in the SINAN, in relation to the SIH and the SIM, was 42.2% and 45.0% respectively. The estimated underreporting of deaths was 53% and 46.5%, when compared to SINAN-deaths and SIH-deaths respectively. The estimated incidence was 2.9 per 100,000 inhabitants, from the comparison between the SINAN and the SIH, 70.5% higher than the one found when SINAN's data were the only ones utilized. Furthermore, when comparing data from SIM and SINAN-deaths, an estimated fatality rate of 8% was observed, representing an increase in 16% from the one initially registered in the SINAN-deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

The results show high estimated underreporting of cases and deaths due to visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil. The relationship between information systems and the capture-recapture method application enabled to know and improve the epidemiological estimates, making its utilization in health services feasible.