Tobacco induced diseases · 2025
Trends in type 2 diabetes-related deaths and disability-adjusted life years among smoking middle-aged and elderly adults in China, 1990-2021.
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He Yujun, Lai Chyuanan, Xing Bowen, Xu Hui, He Jiujie, Mai Wei, Qin Simin, Wang Jiajia, Ye Yuping
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a global health crisis. Smoking, a key risk factor for T2DM, significantly impacts middle-aged and elderly populations. In China, with the world's largest elderly population and a high prevalence of smoking, the burden of smoking-related T2DM remains underrecognized.
METHODS: Using GBD 2021 data, we applied joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort analysis, and the ARIMA model for prediction. This is a secondary dataset analysis. The study population included Chinese adults aged ≥55 years.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking-associated T2DM showed a substantial increase, with males experiencing a significant rise in both number of death and DALYs rates, while females exhibited a decrease in death rate though total number of deaths rose. Joinpoint analysis revealed fluctuating trends in mortality and DALYs. The age-period-cohort analysis highlighted the age group of 70-75 years as a high-risk period. Predictive analysis suggested a slight upward trend in mortality for the overall population and males, while the DALYs rate was expected to remain stable but increase among males and decrease among females.
CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, the impact of smoking on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among middle-aged and elderly adults in China continued to rise, with notable gender differences. Strengthening tobacco control and diabetes management, particularly for males and high-risk age groups, is crucial for reducing this burden.
METHODS: Using GBD 2021 data, we applied joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort analysis, and the ARIMA model for prediction. This is a secondary dataset analysis. The study population included Chinese adults aged ≥55 years.
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking-associated T2DM showed a substantial increase, with males experiencing a significant rise in both number of death and DALYs rates, while females exhibited a decrease in death rate though total number of deaths rose. Joinpoint analysis revealed fluctuating trends in mortality and DALYs. The age-period-cohort analysis highlighted the age group of 70-75 years as a high-risk period. Predictive analysis suggested a slight upward trend in mortality for the overall population and males, while the DALYs rate was expected to remain stable but increase among males and decrease among females.
CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, the impact of smoking on type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among middle-aged and elderly adults in China continued to rise, with notable gender differences. Strengthening tobacco control and diabetes management, particularly for males and high-risk age groups, is crucial for reducing this burden.