A nomogram to predict survival in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND

Individualized prediction of survival after liver transplantation (LT) for patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) has not been well investigated. This study aimed to develop a prognostic nomogram for patients with HBV-ACLF undergoing LT.

METHODS

The nomogram was derived from a retrospective study of 290 patients who underwent LT for HBV-ACLF at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2012 and December 2017. Concordance index and determiner calibration curve was used to ascertain the predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was compared with that of Child-Pugh score, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, chronic liver failure Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), and CLIF-C ACLF.

RESULTS

The 1-year mortality rate was 23.1% (67/290). The Cox multivariate analysis showed that risk factors for 1-year survival rate included white blood cell count, alanine aminotransferase/aspartate aminotransferase ratio, and the organ failure numbers. The determiner calibration curve showed good agreement between prediction of the nomogram and actual observation. The concordance index of the nomogram for predicting 1-year survival was 0.707, which was significantly higher than that of other prognostic models: Child-Pugh score (0.626), MELD (0.627), MELD-Na (0.583), CLIF-C OF (0.674), and comparable to that of CLIF-C ACLF (0.684).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study developed a novel nomogram that could accurately predict individualized post-transplantation survival in patients with HBV-ACLF. The nomogram might be a useful tool for identifying HBV-ACLF patients who would benefit from LT.