Risk factors and survival after aortic valve replacement in octogenarians.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF THE STUDY: The study aim was to determine if aortic valve replacement in octogenarians is still rewarding.

METHODS: Between 1986 and 2000, 500 patients received a Carpentier-Edwards pericardial valve in the aortic position. Of these patients, 348 also underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Sixty patients were aged > or =80 years. A retrospective follow up totaled 2,022 patient-years. A Cox multivariate regression analysis included 17 preoperative potential risk factors: age >80 years; gender; carcinoma; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; renal failure; stroke; arterial hypertension; carotid artery disease; myocardial infarction; coronary artery disease; conduction defects; atrial fibrillation; medically treated endocarditis; severity of symptoms; urgent operation; left ventricular function; and need for digitalis.

RESULTS: For hospital mortality, independent predictors were urgent surgery (Risk Ratio 10.2, 95% CI 2.5-42.0, p = 0.001); age over 80 (RR 4.5, CI 1.3-14.9; p = 0.015); need for digitalis (RR 3.8, CI 1.3-10.6, p = 0.010); male gender (RR 3.7, CI 1.1-12.4; p = 0.035); and myocardial infarction (RR 3.1, CI 1.0-9.4, p = 0.051). For long-term mortality, independent predictors. were urgent surgery (RR 4.5, CI 1.6-12.6; p = 0.004), age >80 (RR 2.5, CI 1.4-4.5, p = 0.002); myocardial infarction (RR 2.1, CI 1.3-3.4; p = 0.003); carcinoma (RR 2.0; CI 1.1-3.7; p = 0.021); and digitalis use (RR 1.8; CI 1.2-2.7; p = 0.004). Univariate analysis revealed that age >80 years (38.6% versus 77.0%), need for urgent operation (0% versus 75.1%), need for digitalis (69.4% versus 76.3%) and myocardial infarction (57.1% versus 76.4%) had a significant effect on five-year survival.

CONCLUSION: For hospital mortality and long-term mortality, a need for urgent surgery was the most determining factor. Age >80 years was the second most important factor, but previous myocardial infarction and need for digitalis were almost equally important. Aortic valve replacement in octogenarians is still rewarding, as five-year survival is 38.6%. Thus, surgery in these patients should not be postponed.