Rates and causes of death from non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes: ten year follow-up of the PRAIS-UK registry.

BACKGROUND

Long term nationally representative mortality rates following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) admissions are lacking beyond 5 years. We report rates and causes of mortality at approximately 10 years from PRAIS-UK.

METHODS

PRAIS-UK was a prospective registry of 1046 non-ST-elevation ACS admissions to 56 UK hospitals between 1998 and 1999. 493 patients surviving to 6 months were consented to long term follow-up. We identified deaths and causes (ICD codes) via the UK central death register and examined the influence of baseline characteristics and early revascularisation procedures. A modified GRACE risk score was constructed to determine the association of baseline score with long term risk of death.

RESULTS

The mean age was 66 years and 40% were women. After a median follow-up of 11.6 years (IQR 6.3-11.9), 46% (225) of patients had died with 55% being classified as cardiovascular. In a multivariate analysis, the following variables were associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio [HR] and 95% confidence intervals [CI]): age (10 years increase) 2.14 (1.87 to 2.45), ST depression or bundle branch block (compared to normal ECG) 1.68 (1.06 to 2.67), and history of heart failure (compared to no HF) 1.81 (1.28 to 2.56). The HR for risk of death in patients who received a revascularisation procedure (versus those who did not) in the first 6 months was 0.41 (0.24 to 0.69). The mean adapted GRACE score was 99.3 ± 26.4, associated with approximately 50% mortality at 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-ST elevation ACS is associated with about 50% mortality over 10 years that may be improved by early revascularisation. Well designed long-term registries can provide key data to determine prognosis and burden of disease.