[Diagnosis of pre-recurrent syndrome in bleeding ulcer of the stomach and duodenum].

The individual surgical strategy used in the recent years has allowed to improve results of treatment of patients with ulcerous gastroduodenal bleedings. A considerable number of recurrent hemorrhages due to insufficiently reliable prognosis is responsible for high lethality in this pathology. An investigation of pathogenesis of rebleedings as well as a statistical analysis of 249 case histories of patients with ulcerous hemorrhages allowed detection of most significant clinico-laboratory and endoscopic signs of recurrent bleeding. Of the greatest importance were case histories of collapse, active bleeding by G.P. Gidikir, size of the ulcer and blood loss indices. The program Statistica 5.5 (USA, 1998) was used for the development of the algorithm of prognosis of recurrent bleeding as three trees of solutions. The prognosis exactness by each of the trees was about 80%. The combined use of several trees substantially increased the prognosis reliability. The method can be recommended for wide practical application due to its simplicity and exactness.