TyG and TyG-BMI indices as predictive biomarkers for T2DM risk in overweight and obese individuals: Insights from the CHNS database clinical study.

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disorder that lacks specific early diagnostic markers and is often associated with serious complications and comorbidities. The triglyceride-glucose index (TyG) and the triglyceride-glucose-body mass index (TyG-BMI) are key metabolic indicators related to insulin resistance and β-cell dysfunction. However, their association with the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) remains unclear. This study aimed to examine the relationship between TyG and TyG-BMI levels and the incidence of T2DM, evaluate their predictive performance, and support the identification of populations at high risk for T2DM.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), including 9498 participants. TyG and TyG-BMI were calculated, and their associations with T2DM risk were assessed using a Cox regression model. Predictive performance was evaluated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.

RESULTS

In the overall population, including both sexes, individuals aged >50 years and ≤50 years, and both urban and rural residents, higher TyG and TyG-BMI levels were independently associated with T2DM, showing a linear dose-response relationship. Both indicators demonstrated predictive value for T2DM, with TyG-BMI showing stronger associations, a larger area under the ROC curve, and greater clinical relevance.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that both TyG and TyG-BMI are useful predictors of T2DM, with TyG-BMI providing superior predictive accuracy. These findings support the use of these indices in the early screening of high-risk T2DM populations.