[Effect of environmental factors on temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake region].

OBJECTIVE

To explore and analyze the dynamic characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake region.

METHODS

A model of schistosomiasis transmission was constructed with the actual temperature, rainfall, data of snail investigation, data from schistosomiasis control and treatment, and factors such as daily rainfall, average monthly temperature-base temperature for schistosome growing and development in the 8 counties of Poyang Lake region, and the change of schistosomiasis spreading indexes was analyzed. The map of schistosomiasis spreading trend was drawn by using ArcGIS software, and the spread of schistosomiasis was forecasted. The spatial distribution of areas of snail breeding marshlands was analyzed by using Theil index.

RESULTS

The transmission of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake region not only had big difference on temporal scale, but also changed on spatial scale among the counties in Poyang Lake region.

CONCLUSION

In Poyang Lake region, the ecosystem suiting snail breeding already shifts to north, which certainly will alter the epidemic situation of schistosomiasis.