An agent-based model for control strategies of Echinococcus granulosus.

Cystic echinococcosis is a widespread zoonosis, caused by Echinococcus granulosus. The definitive hosts are carnivores and the intermediate hosts are grazing animals. Because humans are often accidentally infected with the cystic stage of the parasite, a control program is being developed for Western China. Western Sichuan Province in China is a highly endemic area. In this study, we built an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate and assess possible control strategies. These included dog dosing, control of livestock slaughter, health education, vaccination of intermediate hosts, vaccination of definitive hosts, slow-released praziquantel injections for dogs, removing unproductive old livestock, dog population reduction. These strategies were examined singly and in various combinations. The results show that vaccination based control strategies and also combined control strategies (dog dosing, slaughter control, removing old livestock, dog population reduction) can achieve a higher efficiency and be more feasible. Although monthly dog dosing achieved the highest efficiency, it required a high frequency and reliability, which were not feasible or sustainable. The model also indicated that transmission would recover soon after the chosen control strategy was stopped, indicating the need to move from a successful attack phase to a sustainable consolidation phase.