Nomogram for predicting delayed cerebral ischemia after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Chinese population.

BACKGROUND: Delayed cerebral ischemia is a serious complication of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage with debilitating and fatal consequences. Lack of well-established risk factors impedes early identification of high-risk patients with delayed cerebral ischemia. A nomogram provides personalized, evidence-based, and accurate risk estimation. To offset the lack of a predictive tool, we developed a nomogram to predict delayed cerebral ischemia before performing surgical interventions for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage to aid surgical decision-making.

METHODS: We retrospectively collected data from 887 consecutive eligible Chinese patients who underwent surgical clipping or endovascular coiling for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Patients who previously underwent surgery formed the training cohort (n = 621) for nomogram development; those who underwent surgery later formed the validation cohort (n = 266) to confirm the performance of the model. A multivariate logistic regression analysis identified the independent risk factors associated with delayed cerebral ischemia, which were then incorporated into the nomogram.

RESULTS: Delayed cerebral ischemia was identified in 158/621 patients (25.4%) in the training cohort and in 66/266 patients (24.8%) in the validation cohort. Preoperative factors associated with delayed cerebral ischemia were age > 65 years, modified Fisher grade of 3-4, ruptured aneurysm in the anterior circulation, Hunt-Hess grade of 4-5, high blood pressure on admission, and plasma homocysteine level ≥ 10 μmol/L. Incorporating these six factors in the nomogram achieved efficient concordance indices of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.68-0.77) and 0.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.72) in predicting delayed cerebral ischemia in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: Our model can help determine an individual's risk of developing delayed cerebral ischemia in the Chinese population, and thereby, facilitate reasonable treatment-related decision-making.