Governing the invisible: Deep-sea debris, lessons from space, and AI innovation for global commons governance.

This paper develops a dynamic theoretical model to address the governance of deep-sea debris as a global commons challenge. Drawing analogies from space debris management, the model integrates governance quality, enforcement capacity, and technological innovation-particularly artificial intelligence and robotics-to analyse their interactions in mitigating debris accumulation. Deep-sea debris is conceptualized as a dynamic externality problem characterized by tipping points and potential irreversibility, similar to the risks posed by space debris in low Earth orbit. Scenario simulations and sensitivity analyses reveal that effective governance and enforcement are prerequisites for maximizing the benefits of technological innovation. The findings underscore the importance of polycentric governance and adaptive strategies to prevent irreversible ecological damage in both deep-sea and orbital commons.