Brainstem networks construct threat probability and prediction error from neuronal building blocks.

When faced with potential threat we must estimate its probability, respond advantageously, and leverage experience to update future estimates. Threat estimation is the proposed domain of the forebrain, while behaviour is elicited by the brainstem. Yet, the brainstem is also a source of prediction error, a learning signal to acquire and update threat estimates. Neuropixels probes allowed us to record single-unit activity across a 21-region brainstem axis in rats receiving probabilistic fear discrimination with foot shock outcome. Against a backdrop of diffuse behaviour signaling, a brainstem network with a dorsal hub signaled threat probability. Neuronal function remapping during the outcome period gave rise to brainstem networks signaling prediction error and shock on multiple timescales. The results reveal brainstem networks construct threat probability, behaviour, and prediction error signals from neuronal building blocks.