Predictors of post-operative complications after surgical resection of hepatocellular carcinoma and their prognostic effects on outcome and survival: A propensity-score matched and structural equation modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Although hepatectomy is the mainstay of curative therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), post-operative complications remain high. Presently there is conflicting data on the impact of morbidity on oncologic outcomes. We sought to identify predictors for the occurrence of post-hepatectomy complications, as well as to analyse the impact on overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of 888 patients who underwent resection for HCC from 2001 to 2016 in our institution.

RESULTS: A total of 237 patients (26.7%) developed 254 complications of Clavien-Dindo Grade ≥2. Hepatitis B (p = 0.0397), elevated ASA score (p = 0.0002), higher platelet counts (p = 0.0277), raised pre-operative APRI scores (p = 0.0105) and bloodloss (p < 0.0001) were independently associated with the development of complications. After propensity-score matching, 458 patients were compared in a 1:1 ratio (229 with complications versus 229 without). Patients with complications had significantly longer median length of stay (9 days [IQR 7-15] versus 6 days [IQR 5-8], p < 0.0001), higher 90-day mortality rates as well as inferior OS (p = 0.0139), but there was no difference in RFS (p = 0.4577). Age (p = 0.0006), elevated Child Pugh points (p < 0.0001), microvascular invasion (p = 0.0002), multifocal tumours (p = 0.0002), R1 resection (p = 0.0443) and development of complications (p = 0.0091) were independent predictors of inferior OS.

CONCLUSION: Post-operative morbidity affected both short-term and OS outcomes after hepatectomy for HCC. Hepatitis B, higher ASA scores, elevated preoperative APRI and increased blood loss were found to predict a higher likelihood of developing complications. This may potentially be mitigated by careful patient selection and adopting strict measures to minimise intraoperative bleeding.