[Contribution of mathematical models and biomechanical properties in predicting the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture].

INTRODUCTION: Rupture is the worst outcome of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA). The decision to operate should include counterbalancing the risk of aneurysm rupture against the risk of aneurysm repair, within the context of a patient's overall life expectancy. Current surgical guidelines are based on population studies, and important variables are missed in predicting individual risk of rupture.

METHODS: In this literature review, we focused on the contribution of biomechanical and mathematical models in predicting risk of AAA rupture.

RESULTS: Anatomical features as diameter asymmetry and lack of tortuosity are shown to be anatomical risk factors of rupture. Wall stiffness (due to modifications of elastin and collagen composition) and increased inflammatory response are also factors that affect the structural integrity of the AAA wall. Biomechanical studies showed that wall strength is lower in ruptured than non-ruptured AAA. Intra-luminal thrombus also has a big role to play in the occurrence of rupture. Current mathematical models allow more variables to be included in predicting individual risk of rupture.

CONCLUSION: Moving away from using maximal transverse diameter of the AAA as a unique predictive factor and instead including biological, structural and biomechanical variables in predicting individual risk of rupture will be essential in the future and will help gain precision and accuracy in surgical indications.