Atrial fibrillation, anticoagulation, and stroke.

There is a demonstrated statistical association between atrial fibrillation, rheumatic valvular disease, and embolic stroke. This article assesses the results of 6 major clinical trials (AFASAK, BAATAF, SPINAF, SPAF [parts I and II], CAFA and EAFTA--see text for trial names). Multivariate analysis revealed 4 independent clinical features that identified patients with atrial fibrillation at an increased risk for stroke: hypertension, increasing age, previous transient ischemic attack, and diabetes mellitus. Without anticoagulation therapy, patients with any of these risk factors had a 4% annual risk of stroke. Patients with cardiac disorders such as congestive heart failure and coronary artery disease have a stroke rate 3 times higher than patients without any risk factors; patients with atrial fibrillation but no concomitant risk factors or structural heart disease seemed to have little concomitant risk for stroke. Meta-analysis revealed a 64% reduction of risk for stroke in patients treated with warfarin, as compared with placebo. The value of warfarin therapy in patients > 75 years old is less clear because of a high risk of hemorrhagic complications.