PM & R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation · 2026
Forecasting the physical medicine and rehabilitation workforce through 2037: National and geographic disparities in supply and demand.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Owens Morgen, Inzerillo Sean, Cohen Samantha, Mastrokostas Paul, Margetis Konstantinos, Escalon Miguel
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R) physicians manage patients with complex functional impairments due to stroke, spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, congenital conditions, progressive neurological disorders, and chronic musculoskeletal conditions. These patients often require long-term, resource-intensive care. However, long-term projections of the national physiatry workforce remain limited, and existing estimates do not account for access disparities.
OBJECTIVE: To forecast national and geographic trends in PM&R workforce supply, demand, and adequacy through 2037, under current and expanded access scenarios.
DESIGN: Forecasting analysis using the Health Workforce Simulation Model, developed by the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, and publicly available federal datasets.
SETTING: National and state-level workforce projections in the United States.
PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable.
INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Projected national and state-level workforce adequacy, defined as the ratio of supply to demand in full-time equivalents (FTEs), from 2022 to 2037 under status quo and reduced barriers scenarios.
RESULTS: From 2022 to 2037, PM&R supply is projected to increase 10.6%, rising from 11,660 to 12,830 FTEs. Over the same period, demand increases by 8.1% under the status quo scenario (12,780 to 13,820 FTEs) but reaches 18,060 FTEs under the reduced barriers scenario. National adequacy improves slightly under the status quo (91% to 93%) but remains flat under reduced barriers (71%). Metropolitan areas maintain higher adequacy than nonmetroplitan areas, which remain severely underserved. State-level projections show persistent disparities, with adequacy ranging from 29% in West Virginia to 200% in the District of Columbia. By 2037, PM&R ranks 13th in adequacy under the status quo and 25th under reduced barriers among 37 specialties.
CONCLUSIONS: Workforce projections suggest persistent and uneven shortages in PM&R, particularly in nonmetropolitan regions and under scenarios of expanded access. Strategic efforts to expand training capacity and improve geographic distribution are warranted to meet future rehabilitation care needs.
OBJECTIVE: To forecast national and geographic trends in PM&R workforce supply, demand, and adequacy through 2037, under current and expanded access scenarios.
DESIGN: Forecasting analysis using the Health Workforce Simulation Model, developed by the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, and publicly available federal datasets.
SETTING: National and state-level workforce projections in the United States.
PARTICIPANTS: Not applicable.
INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Projected national and state-level workforce adequacy, defined as the ratio of supply to demand in full-time equivalents (FTEs), from 2022 to 2037 under status quo and reduced barriers scenarios.
RESULTS: From 2022 to 2037, PM&R supply is projected to increase 10.6%, rising from 11,660 to 12,830 FTEs. Over the same period, demand increases by 8.1% under the status quo scenario (12,780 to 13,820 FTEs) but reaches 18,060 FTEs under the reduced barriers scenario. National adequacy improves slightly under the status quo (91% to 93%) but remains flat under reduced barriers (71%). Metropolitan areas maintain higher adequacy than nonmetroplitan areas, which remain severely underserved. State-level projections show persistent disparities, with adequacy ranging from 29% in West Virginia to 200% in the District of Columbia. By 2037, PM&R ranks 13th in adequacy under the status quo and 25th under reduced barriers among 37 specialties.
CONCLUSIONS: Workforce projections suggest persistent and uneven shortages in PM&R, particularly in nonmetropolitan regions and under scenarios of expanded access. Strategic efforts to expand training capacity and improve geographic distribution are warranted to meet future rehabilitation care needs.