A modeling analysis of young drivers' judgments of accident risk due to alcohol use and other driving conditions.

Male (60) and female (60) college students who were under the legal drinking age completed a personal driving experience questionnaire and judged the probability of an accident occurring in 100 driving scenarios, half involving an intoxicated male driver and half a sober male driver. The scenarios also varied in terms of the safety levels of five other driving factors. Mathematical models derived from the probability judgments permitted measurement of the influence of the various driving factors on perceived risk. The driving factors in order of their influence on the accident probability judgments were driver intoxication-nonintoxication, vehicle speed, road conditions, driver mood and driving experience, which did not significantly differ, and the driver's experience with alcohol use. Accident probability estimates of the alcohol scenarios increased as an additive function of the other driving factors, whereas increased risk of an accident in the no-alcohol scenarios was more dependent upon multiple unsafe factors. Female students judged the probability of an accident higher overall than did male students. Subject drinking classification (abstain-light, moderate or heavy) was not related to accident probability estimates.