Apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I ratio and apolipoprotein B: long-term predictors of myocardial infarction in initially healthy middle-aged men--a 13-year follow-up.

We investigated whether serum concentrations of apolipoprotein (apo) B and apoA-I and the apoB/apoA-I ratio provided predictive information on myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke during 13 years of follow-up in a group of initially clinically healthy 58-year-old men, free from previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes, other established disease, or treatment with cardiovascular drugs. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the apoB/apoA-I ratio and apoB were significant and independent determinants of MI (exponentiation of the B coefficient [Exp(β)] 3.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.6-6.3, P=.001, Exp(β) 2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.7, P=.045, respectively). The area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve as a relative measure of test efficiency was highest and significant for both apoB/apoA-I ratio and apoB (area under the curve=0.75, P<.001). In conclusion, the apoB/apoA-I ratio and apoB are independent risk factors for MI and has the highest efficiencies for predicting MI in initially healthy middle-aged men.