International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2025
Focusing on malignancies attributable to metabolic risk: analysis of global burden database and projections of future trends.
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Song Jiazhao, Ma Jianke, Jing Saisai
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Malignant tumors due to high metabolic risk are currently a major health threat worldwide, and their rising mortality rate poses a great challenge to cancer prevention and control. This study is based on data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 to analyze trends in cancer deaths and predict future burdens.
METHODS: The burden of disease was assessed by aggregating age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Analyze the correlation between socio-demographic indices (SDIs) and gender and cancer incidence. Calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its corresponding 95% uncertainty interval to summarize the overall trend. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict future trends.
RESULTS: Cancer mortality from malignant tumors due to high metabolic risk has been trending upward each year over the past 30 years in middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI areas. The highest growth rates of increase were 51% in the low-middle SDI region, the AAPC values of 2.488 and 2.480 deaths and DALYs per 100 000 population, respectively. Cancer mortality rates in the medium-high SDI region decreased slightly after 2019. The ARIMA model predicts that mortality and DALYs will continue to rise steadily through 2050.
CONCLUSION: The findings suggest the need for targeted health promotion outreach and clinical interventions supported by sustained medical inputs to more effectively manage the growing global cancer burden.
METHODS: The burden of disease was assessed by aggregating age-standardized mortality rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Analyze the correlation between socio-demographic indices (SDIs) and gender and cancer incidence. Calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its corresponding 95% uncertainty interval to summarize the overall trend. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict future trends.
RESULTS: Cancer mortality from malignant tumors due to high metabolic risk has been trending upward each year over the past 30 years in middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI areas. The highest growth rates of increase were 51% in the low-middle SDI region, the AAPC values of 2.488 and 2.480 deaths and DALYs per 100 000 population, respectively. Cancer mortality rates in the medium-high SDI region decreased slightly after 2019. The ARIMA model predicts that mortality and DALYs will continue to rise steadily through 2050.
CONCLUSION: The findings suggest the need for targeted health promotion outreach and clinical interventions supported by sustained medical inputs to more effectively manage the growing global cancer burden.