Temporal trend of sexual violence: time series analysis, Brazil, 2016-2022.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trend of sexual violence in Brazil between 2016 and 2022.

METHODS

Time series study using reported cases of sexual violence between 2016 and 2022 from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). The annual percent change (APC) and its corresponding 95% confidence interval were calculated using the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 299,962 cases of sexual violence were reported. An increasing trend was also observed at the national level (APC 8.13; 95%CI 3.38; 13.12; p-value 0.007) and in all geographic regions of Brazil: Central-West (APC 8.56; 95%CI 3.33; 14.07; p-value 0.008); Northeast (APC 10.61; 95%CI 6.60; 14.78; p-value 0.001); North (APC 5.06; 95%CI 1.09; 9.19; p-value 0.022); Southeast (APC 8.72; 95%CI 3.38; 14.36; p-value 0.008); and South (APC 7.01; 95%CI 0.41; 14.05; p-value 0.041). Regarding age group, sex, race/skin color, and education level of the victim, only four variables showed a stationary trend: age: ignored/blank (APC 25.90; 95%CI -34.38; 141.59; p-value 0.405), sex: male (APC 5.54; 95%CI -0.43; 11.88; p-value 0.063), race/skin color ignored/blank (APC -1.99; 95%CI -4.91; 1.01; p-value 0.147), and education level: illiterate (APC 1.68; 95%CI -2.81; 5.71; p-value 0.318). All other variables showed an increasing trend.

CONCLUSION

The trend of sexual violence in Brazil remained upward, with a wide geographic and sociodemographic distribution.