Prognostic factors in first-ever stroke in the carotid artery territory seen within 6 hours after onset.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We sought to detect prognostic factors related to functional outcome during the first 6 hours after a first-ever stroke in the carotid artery territory.

METHODS

All patients with these characteristics seen during a 3-year period were included. Outcome was evaluated according to a modified Rankin scale. The following variables were examined at univariate analysis: sex, age, severity of deficit at entry and at day 7, level of consciousness at entry, time after symptom onset, history of smoking, history of hypertension, diabetes, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, rheumatic heart disease, dilated cardiomyopathy, all potential cardioembolic sources, presence of a consistent lesion on computed tomography at entry and at days 5-9, and the size of such lesion.

RESULTS

All entry criteria were met by 172 patients. Age > or = 70 years, a Canadian Neurological Scale score < 6.5 at entry and at day 7, atrial fibrillation, presence of a potential cardioembolic source, and a "large" lesion (involving more than half the cerebral lobe) on computed tomography at days 5-9 were associated with a significantly worse outcome both at 30 days and at 6 months. After multivariate analysis, a Canadian Scale score < 6.5 at entry (p < 0.0001) and atrial fibrillation (p = 0.005) were associated with a significant handicap or death at 30 days, whereas only a Canadian Scale score < 6.5 (p < 0.0001) was associated with a worse prognosis at 6 months. An association of age > or = 70 years with a worse outcome at 6 months was of borderline significance (p = 0.054).

CONCLUSIONS

Some prognostic indicators are available during the first few hours after onset of a carotid ischemic stroke and may be useful in the stratification of patients in clinical trials. Severity of deficit is the most important indicator, whereas the presence of atrial fibrillation worsens the prognostic outlook with respect to early handicap but not mortality.