Excess Deaths of Gastrointestinal, Liver, and Pancreatic Diseases During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States.

Objectives

To evaluate excess deaths of gastrointestinal, liver, and pancreatic diseases in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We retrieved weekly death counts from National Vital Statistics System and fitted them with a quasi-Poisson regression model. Cause-specific excess deaths were calculated by the difference between observed and expected deaths with adjustment for temporal trend and seasonality. Demographic disparities and temporal-spatial patterns were evaluated for different diseases.

Results

From March 2020 to September 2022, the increased mortality (measured by excess risks) for Clostridium difficile colitis, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, and acute pancreatitis were 35.9%; 24.8%; and 20.6% higher than the expected. For alcoholic liver disease, fibrosis/cirrhosis, and hepatic failure, the excess risks were 1.4-2.8 times higher among younger inhabitants than older inhabitants. The excess deaths of selected diseases were persistently observed across multiple epidemic waves with fluctuating trends for gastrointestinal hemorrhage and fibrosis/cirrhosis and an increasing trend for C. difficile colitis.

Conclusion

The persistently observed excess deaths of digestive diseases highlights the importance for healthcare authorities to develop sustainable strategies in response to the long-term circulating of SARS-CoV-2 in the community.