Trends in incidence, prevalence, and mortality of peptic ulcer disease in Asia (1990-2023) and projections to 2040.

BACKGROUND

This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the burden of peptic ulcer disease (PUD) in Asia, analyzing epidemiological trends from 1990 to 2023 with projections to 2040.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023, we analyzed PUD metrics across 48 Asian countries and territories. Age-standardized rates were calculated by the direct method. Temporal trends were evaluated by Joinpoint regression, and future burden was projected to 2040 using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling.

RESULTS

In 2023, Asia recorded 1.87 million incident PUD cases (age-standardized incidence rate: 39.34 per 100,000), 4.32 million prevalent cases (age-standardized prevalence rate: 90.58 per 100,000), and 131,011 deaths (age-standardized death rate: 2.85 per 100,000). PUD caused 3.46 million Disability-adjusted life years, with premature mortality accounting for >90% of the total burden. From 1990 to 2023, Joinpoint regression revealed significant declining trends across all age-standardized metrics (annual percentage change range: -1.32%-- 3.27%; all P < .05). ARIMA projections to 2040 suggest continued decreases in all rates, with years lived with disability expected to exceed years of life losts as the dominant component of disease burden.

CONCLUSION

Despite declining incidence, PUD continues to impose a substantial disease burden across Asia. The persistent toll: driven by an expanding and aging population: underscores the need for sustained prevention efforts, including population-based Helicobacter pylori screening, rational non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs prescribing, and health system capacity for emergency endoscopic intervention and long-term chronic disease management.