BMC cancer · 2017
Development of nomograms to predict axillary lymph node status in breast cancer patients.
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Chen Kai, Liu Jieqiong, Li Shunrong, Jacobs Lisa
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Prediction of axillary lymph node (ALN) status preoperatively is critical in the management of breast cancer patients. This study aims to develop a new set of nomograms to accurately predict ALN status.
METHODS: We searched the National Cancer Database to identify eligible female breast cancer patients with profiles containing critical information. Patients diagnosed in 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 were designated the training (n = 99,618) and validation (n = 101,834) cohorts, respectively. We used binary logistic regression to investigate risk factors for ALN status and to develop a new set of nomograms to determine the probability of having any positive ALNs and N2-3 disease. We used ROC analysis and calibration plots to assess the discriminative ability and accuracy of the nomograms, respectively.
RESULTS: In the training cohort, we identified age, quadrant of the tumor, tumor size, histology, ER, PR, HER2, tumor grade and lymphovascular invasion as significant predictors of ALNs status. Nomogram-A was developed to predict the probability of having any positive ALNs (P_any) in the full population with a C-index of 0.788 and 0.786 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In patients with positive ALNs, Nomogram-B was developed to predict the conditional probability of having N2-3 disease (P_con) with a C-index of 0.680 and 0.677 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The absolute probability of having N2-3 disease can be estimated by P_any*P_con. Both of the nomograms were well-calibrated.
CONCLUSIONS: We developed a set of nomograms to predict the ALN status in breast cancer patients.
METHODS: We searched the National Cancer Database to identify eligible female breast cancer patients with profiles containing critical information. Patients diagnosed in 2010-2011 and 2012-2013 were designated the training (n = 99,618) and validation (n = 101,834) cohorts, respectively. We used binary logistic regression to investigate risk factors for ALN status and to develop a new set of nomograms to determine the probability of having any positive ALNs and N2-3 disease. We used ROC analysis and calibration plots to assess the discriminative ability and accuracy of the nomograms, respectively.
RESULTS: In the training cohort, we identified age, quadrant of the tumor, tumor size, histology, ER, PR, HER2, tumor grade and lymphovascular invasion as significant predictors of ALNs status. Nomogram-A was developed to predict the probability of having any positive ALNs (P_any) in the full population with a C-index of 0.788 and 0.786 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. In patients with positive ALNs, Nomogram-B was developed to predict the conditional probability of having N2-3 disease (P_con) with a C-index of 0.680 and 0.677 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The absolute probability of having N2-3 disease can be estimated by P_any*P_con. Both of the nomograms were well-calibrated.
CONCLUSIONS: We developed a set of nomograms to predict the ALN status in breast cancer patients.