British dental journal · 1998
A study of the validity of a simulation of third molar eruption based on Markov modelling.
Сравнительное исследованиеСтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Brickley M R, Shepherd J P
Аннотация
PURPOSE OF INVESTIGATION: The study was undertaken to examine the extent to which a model based on a Markov modelling process would simulate the eruption of lower third molars.
BASIC PROCEDURE: A Markov process model was developed to model eruption of lower third molars using a 1-year time increment based on simulated eruption data relating to 100 lower third molars. This model was tested using a Monte Carlo simulation and compared with eruption patterns of 973 actual lower third molars. Statistical analysis of the differences between the simulated and actual groups was undertaken.
MAIN FINDINGS: There were no differences between the simulated and actual data other than for the subgroup aged 30-34 where the simulation overestimated the probability of parteruption and underestimated the probability of uneruption and full eruption.
PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS: This methodology produced an accurate model that may be of use in service planning.
BASIC PROCEDURE: A Markov process model was developed to model eruption of lower third molars using a 1-year time increment based on simulated eruption data relating to 100 lower third molars. This model was tested using a Monte Carlo simulation and compared with eruption patterns of 973 actual lower third molars. Statistical analysis of the differences between the simulated and actual groups was undertaken.
MAIN FINDINGS: There were no differences between the simulated and actual data other than for the subgroup aged 30-34 where the simulation overestimated the probability of parteruption and underestimated the probability of uneruption and full eruption.
PRINCIPAL CONCLUSIONS: This methodology produced an accurate model that may be of use in service planning.