A study of the validity of a simulation of third molar eruption based on Markov modelling.

PURPOSE OF INVESTIGATION: The study was undertaken to examine the extent to which a model based on a Markov modelling process would simulate the eruption of lower third molars.

BASIC PROCEDURE: A Markov process model was developed to model eruption of lower third molars using a 1-year time increment based on simulated eruption data relating to 100 lower third molars. This model was tested using a Monte Carlo simulation and compared with eruption patterns of 973 actual lower third molars. Statistical analysis of the differences between the simulated and actual groups was undertaken.

MAIN FINDINGS: There were no differences between the simulated and actual data other than for the subgroup aged 30-34 where the simulation overestimated the probability of parteruption and underestimated the probability of uneruption and full eruption.

PRINCIPAL

CONCLUSIONS

This methodology produced an accurate model that may be of use in service planning.