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DOI 10.1002/hed.70390

Медицинская библиотека · Head & neck · 2026

Nomograms Predictive of Recurrence in Malignant Tumors Treated With Skull Base Surgery: An International Collaborative Study.

Valero Cristina, Ganly Ian, Boe Lillian A, Patel Snehal G, Levyn Helena, Adilbay Dauren, Eagan Alana, Cohen Marc A, Zheng Junting, Gonen Mithat, Pai Prathamesh, Castelnuovo Paolo, Gao Fang Ju, Piazza Cesare, Nicolai Piero, Panizza Ben, Bowman James, Barnett Catherine, Kowalski Luiz P, Toledo Ronaldo N, Fliss Dan M, de Almeida John R, Witterick Ian, Herman Philippe, Fontanella Walter, Sanchez Aniceto Gregorio, Rivero Calle Alvaro, Hosal Sefik, Ozer Serdar, Iyer Subramania, Harvey Richard, Leemans C Rene, Hendrickx Jan-Jaap, Figari Marcelo, Boccalatte Luis, Nibu Ken Ichi, Clarke Peter, Rennie Catherine, Ming Zhu Yi, Cernea Claudio, Goncalves Sergio, Schlosser Rodney J, Dias Fernando L, Sargi Zoukaa, Ahmed Shahzada, Golusinski Wojciech, Kim Se Heon, Su Shirley Y, Raza Shaan M, DeMonte Franco, Hanna Ehab, Shah Jatin P

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Аннотация

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to develop predictive models for local (LR), regional (RR), and distant recurrence (DR) after skull base surgery for primary malignant tumors.

METHODS

We analyzed 2179 patients (1995-2015) from an international multicenter database, split into training (n = 1297) and validation (n = 882) cohorts. Cox regression identified predictors of LR, RR, and DR, and nomograms were developed and validated using concordance indexes (C-indexes).

RESULTS

Median age was 56 years; 64% were male. The most common sites included the ethmoid sinus (38%), nasal cavity (25%), and maxillary sinus (20%). Squamous cell carcinoma was the most frequent histology (25%). LR predictors included brain invasion, higher-risk histology, pT3/T4, pN+, positive margins, and adjuvant therapy (protective). RR predictors included high-risk histology, pT3/T4, and pN+. DR predictors mirrored LR except for adjuvant therapy. C-indexes were around 0.7 for all endpoints.

CONCLUSIONS

These validated nomograms provide useful tools for recurrence risk stratification and personalized management.

Для цитирования: Valero Cristina, Ganly Ian, Boe Lillian A, Patel Snehal G, Levyn Helena, Adilbay Dauren, Eagan Alana, Cohen Marc A, Zheng Junting, Gonen Mithat, Pai Prathamesh, Castelnuovo Paolo, Gao Fang Ju, Piazza Cesare, Nicolai Piero, Panizza Ben, Bowman James, Barnett Catherine, Kowalski Luiz P, Toledo Ronaldo N, Fliss Dan M, de Almeida John R, Witterick Ian, Herman Philippe, Fontanella Walter, Sanchez Aniceto Gregorio, Rivero Calle Alvaro, Hosal Sefik, Ozer Serdar, Iyer Subramania, Harvey Richard, Leemans C Rene, Hendrickx Jan-Jaap, Figari Marcelo, Boccalatte Luis, Nibu Ken Ichi, Clarke Peter, Rennie Catherine, Ming Zhu Yi, Cernea Claudio, Goncalves Sergio, Schlosser Rodney J, Dias Fernando L, Sargi Zoukaa, Ahmed Shahzada, Golusinski Wojciech, Kim Se Heon, Su Shirley Y, Raza Shaan M, DeMonte Franco, Hanna Ehab, Shah Jatin P. Nomograms Predictive of Recurrence in Malignant Tumors Treated With Skull Base Surgery: An International Collaborative Study.. Head & neck. 2026. DOI: 10.1002/hed.70390.
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