Burden and Trends of Diet-Related Colorectal Cancer in OECD Countries: Systematic Analysis Based on Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2021 with Projections to 2050.

Background

An unhealthy diet is a major risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). This study assessed the diet-related CRC burden from 1990 to 2021 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations and estimated the burden until 2050.

Methods

Data for OECD countries on diet-related CRC disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study. The estimated annual percent change (EAPC) was calculated to analyse the CRC burden attributable to dietary factors. A generalised additive model with a negative binomial distribution was used to predict the future burden of CRC attributable to dietary factors from 2021 to 2050.

Results

In 2021, the age-standardised percentages of diet-related CRC DALYs and deaths were 39.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 9.3, 61.3) and 39.0% (95% UI: 9.7, 60.9), respectively, in the OECD countries. Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardised DALYs decreased from 185 to 129 per 100,000, and deaths decreased from 8 to 6 per 100,000 population for OECD countries. Similarly, the EAPC in the rates showed a downward trend (EAPCdeaths = -1.26 and EAPCDALYs = -1.20). The estimated diet-related CRC DALYs and deaths are projected to increase to 4.1 million DALYs and 0.2 million deaths by 2050. There is a downward trend in CRC deaths (EAPC = 1.33 for both sexes) and in DALYs (-0.90 for males and -1.0 for females) from 1990 to 2050.

Conclusions

The diet-related CRC burden remains significant. Implementing nutrition intervention programmes is necessary to promote access to affordable and nutritious foods and raise awareness about the importance of a healthy diet in reducing CRC risk.