Sex-specific metabolic risk factors and their trajectories towards the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease incidence.

PURPOSE: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common chronic liver disease. This study examined sex-specific associations between NAFLD and metabolic factors and investigated the trajectory of risk factors.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 16,140 individuals from Beijing Health Management Cohort. Univariate and multivariate time-dependent Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for new-onset NAFLD. The trajectory of risk factors was investigated using the latent growth curve model and growth mixture model.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 3.15 years, 2,450 (15.18%) participants developed NAFLD. The risk factors for NAFLD in men were increased body mass index (BMI); waist circumference (WC); triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), haemoglobin (Hb), and serum uric acid (SUA) levels; and platelet (PLT) count and decreased serum creatinine-to-body weight (sCr/bw) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels. In women, the risk factors were increased BMI, WC, and fasting plasma glucose (FPG), TG, LDL-C, SUA, white blood cell (WBC), and PLT and decreased sCr/bw and HDL-C levels. In addition, BMI, LDL-C, sCr/bw and PLT changing trajectories were associated with NAFLD in men; BMI, WC, TG, LDL-C, SUA and sCr/bw trends was associated with NAFLD risk in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Development of NAFLD is associated with BMI, LDL-C, sCr/bw and PLT changing trajectories in men; BMI, WC, TG, LDL-C, SUA and sCr/bw trends are associated an increased risk of NAFLD in women. Deterioration of metabolic risk factors status can be a predictor of NAFLD many years before its occurrence.