[Comparative assessment of prognostic systems for secondary peritonitis outcome].

OBJECTIVE

To compare the most common prognostic systems in patients with peritonitis.

MATERIAL AND

METHODS

The study included 352 patients with secondary peritonitis. At admission, sepsis was diagnosed in 15 (4.3%) patients, septic shock - in 4 (1.1%) cases. Mortality was associated with the following main causes: purulent intoxication and/or sepsis - 51 cases (87.9%), cancer-induced intoxication - 4 (6.9%) cases, acute cardiovascular failure - 3 cases (5.2%). We analyzed the efficacy of Manheim Peritoneal Index (MPI), WSES prognostic score, APACHE-II scale, gSOFA score and Peritonitis Prediction System (PPS) developed by the authors.

RESULTS

Age of a patient, malignant tumor, exudate nature, sepsis (septic shock) and organ failure not associated with peritonitis are the most important criteria in predicting fatal outcome. ROC analysis was used to assess prognostic value of various prediction systems. Standard error was less than 0.05 for all scales. Therefore, all prediction systems can be considered accurate for prediction of mortality in patients with peritonitis.

CONCLUSION

PPS (AUC 0.942) has the greatest accuracy in predicting fatal outcome in patients with advanced secondary peritonitis, APACHE II (AUC 0.840) - minimum accuracy. MPI had predictive accuracy > 90% too.