[An assessment of the prognostic criteria for early recurrences of peptic hemorrhage].

The proposed prognostic system involves multivariate (step-by-step discriminatory) analysis allowing the risk for the coming early recurrent ulcerous bleedings to be assessed to an accuracy of 84%. Depending on the degree of the risk there have been identified three groups of patients: those of minimum, high and extremely high risk of recurrence of bleeding. The selection algorithm for time of surgical treatment of patients with acutely bleeding pyloroduodenal ulcers takes account of emergency operations (within 24 hours) for patients in the high and extremely high risk groups, allowing the specific weight of interventions at the height of the recurrent bleeding to be reduced from 31% to 14%.