[The importance of the prognosis of a recurrence in choosing the treatment procedure in gastroduodenal hemorrhage of peptic origin].

The results of treatment of 840 patients with ulcer bleeding are adduced. The bleeding recurrence is noted in 88 (10.5%) patients. The monofactorial analysis conduction have established 14 trustful prognostical criteria, on the basis of which the prognostic index is proposed with 76.1% sensitivity and 73.2% specificity. As a result the indications for the surgical treatment of patients with high operational risk and with low risk of the bleeding recurrence were restricted. In 1996 yr. the bleeding recurrence frequency was 6%, operational activity--19.1%, total mortality--2.3%, postoperative mortality--5.1%.