Journal of plastic, reconstructive & aesthetic surgery : JPRAS · 2021
MelRisk: Using neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio to improve risk prediction models for metastatic cutaneous melanoma in the sentinel lymph node.
СтатьяМногоцентровое исследованиеПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Wade Ryckie G, Bailey Samuel, Robinson Alyss V, Lo Michelle C I, Peach Howard, Moncrieff Marc D S, Martin James
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Identifying metastatic melanoma in the sentinel lymph node (SLN) is important because 80% of SLN biopsies are negative and 11% of patients develop complications. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), a biomarker of micrometastatic disease, could improve prediction models for SLN status. We externally validated existing models and developed 'MelRisk' prognostic score to better predict SLN metastasis.
METHODS: The models were externally validated using data from a multicenter cohort study of 1,251 adults. Additionally, we developed and internally validated a new prognostic score `MelRisk', using candidate predictors derived from the extant literature.
RESULTS: The Karakousis model had a C-statistic of 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.62). The Sondak model had a C-statistic of 0.57 (95% CI 0.53-0.61). The MIA model had a C-statistic of 0.60 (95% CI. 0.56-0.64). Our 'MelRisk' model (which used Breslow thickness, ulceration, age, anatomical site, and the NLR) showed an adjusted C-statistic of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.64).
CONCLUSION: Our prediction tool is freely available in the Google Play Store and Apple App Store, and we invite colleagues to externally validate its performance .
METHODS: The models were externally validated using data from a multicenter cohort study of 1,251 adults. Additionally, we developed and internally validated a new prognostic score `MelRisk', using candidate predictors derived from the extant literature.
RESULTS: The Karakousis model had a C-statistic of 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.62). The Sondak model had a C-statistic of 0.57 (95% CI 0.53-0.61). The MIA model had a C-statistic of 0.60 (95% CI. 0.56-0.64). Our 'MelRisk' model (which used Breslow thickness, ulceration, age, anatomical site, and the NLR) showed an adjusted C-statistic of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.56-0.64).
CONCLUSION: Our prediction tool is freely available in the Google Play Store and Apple App Store, and we invite colleagues to externally validate its performance .